Week 8 Picks

Cleveland at St. Louis (+3) – This game is going to be the defining game of the 2007 Cle Browns season. It kind of reminds me of KC at Cle last year. A team with playoff hopes goes to play a bad team they should put away to legitimize themselves and stack up wins for the tough stretches in the season. KC inexplicably lost to Cle in overtime thus killing their playoff hopes because they had SD and Balt upcoming. I am gonna take St. Loo to cover this and win the game. That said only two teams are earning more yards per-play than Cle, they really look real legit at points. Upset count at 1.

NY Giants at Miami (+9.5) – Giants to cover here. Steve Smith and Derrick Ward have been ruled out for this game which hurts and forces the Giants to play Plax (against my advice). No excuse for the Giants to not beat this team. Upset count still at 1.

Philadelphia at Minnesota (+1) – Everything about Minnesota is legit except for Tarvaris Jackson and their WRs, that combination makes for some of the ugliest passing plays I have ever seen in my life. However, this team matches up really well against Philly. Their run D can shut down Westbrook through the middle and on the outside. Plus, they have a Westbrook of their own in All Day Peterson. AD is gonna go nuts on a Dawkins-less Eagles defense, I have never seen a defensive unit that is so reliant on one player, they can’t replace him with anyone. Upset count at 2.

Indianapolis at Carolina (+7) – See the “Trap Game Corollary” post. The only reason I am a little nervous is that the corollary never took into account a team that is led by a 47 year old Vinny T. Upset count at 3.

Detroit at Bears (-5) – Vegas hearts Chicago at home. In week 3 this year, Brian Griese got his first start and threw 2TDs and 3INTs (he also fumbled twice)against the Lions. Detroit went on to win by 10, since then the Bears have continued to get decimated by injuries on the defensive side of the ball. Apparently home field in Chicago is worth 15 points. That's just not rational to me, I like Detroit getting the points and getting the win. Upset count at 4.

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati (+3.5) – There is only one team worse (Miami, .538) than the Bungles in terms of points given up per play the D is on the field (.475). That means almost every other snap the Bengals give up a point. That stat actually includes ST points and points given up by the Cincy offense…but they need to be counted if the team lets that happen. Big Ben is not the type of QB that will go out and beat a good team for you. However, he is not going to make a lot of mistakes and he will make a few plays to help Pitt win. Pitt is going to run all over Cincy and control the clock. Pitt to win and cover, cue Chad Johnson flipping out. Upset count still at 4.

Oakland at Tennessee (-7.5) – VY is back…damn the curse. Oakland can’t stop the run to save their lives. Running the ball is all the Titans do on offense. Enough said, Tenn to win. But I got Oakland to cover, VY will throw a couple picks against a surprisingly good Raiders pass D, Asumgha is the most underrated DB in the NFL. Upset count still at 4.

Jacksonville at Tampa Bay (-3.5) – I thought Tarvaris Jackson would be the worst QB to start a game in the NFL all year. Enter…Quinn Grey. Lucky this team can really, really run the rock. TB is a good team with a good D, still. I like Jax to be pissed off and aggressive. Matt Jones is apparently born again and is ready for “a new beginning”…not that it matters. Jax to win, upset count at 5. Rashean Mathis is the second most underrated DB in the NFL.

Houston at San Diego (no line because Vegas is not sure where or when this will be played) – I will make the line at -9, still, SD to win and cover. People are gonna start getting back on the SD bandwagon. Not to mention the Katrina parallels that are about to spread like wildfire…what....too soon?

New Orleans at San Francisco (+2.5) – NO offense should be able to do enough to win this game. SF is really bad. Alex Smith showed some progress last year under Norv Turner, now, Norv is gone and it shows. Why isn’t Vernon Davis better? Saints to win and cover….upset count still at 5.

Wash at NE (-16) – This opened at 16.5 and is an amazing line because Vegas actually got people to bet against NE. Brilliant. The Pats are gonna cover but it won't happen like against the Dolphins or Jets. I can't see JC or the running game of the Skins getting anything big-time done against the Pats, but I do think they will be able to hold the ball or generate field goals. 7 to 3 end of 1st, 14 to 6 end of half, 21 to 9 end of 3rd, 28 to 12 end of game (16pts lead)...then you have to factor in the meaningless eff you TD when the Skins have already given up...23 pt win for the Pats.

Buffalo at Jets (-3) – The Bills cleaned house in the offseason by letting Clements, Fletcher and McGahee go. It was a clear step towards rebuilding around young talent…a move like this usually will take 3 years to show signs of life and the 4^th year to get people believing. Somehow Buffalo looks to have shaved 2 years off that timeline, a couple good drafts and they will OWN second place in this division and a legit shot at the WC. Buffalo to win and obviously cover. Upset count at 6.

Soon to come…Monday Night Pick.

College Football Quick Hit - Why are ESPN analysts giving the Heisman out before the end of week9? Why are they giving it to a QB from BC who has only beaten GT (completely fallen off the map) and VT(without their best defensive player or QB in the game)? Why does BC only have two ranked teams on their schedule all year? What the hell happened to the ACC?